If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a sign to jump into the market — here it is.
Mortgage applications exploded last week, jumping nearly 30% from the week before, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The refinance index skyrocketed 58% in a single week and is now 70% higher than this time last year.
Why? Mortgage rates are falling — and fast.
The 30-year fixed rate just dropped to 6.26%, the lowest we’ve seen since October. Earlier this year, rates were over 7%. On a loan of $806,500, that drop in rate means a savings of $416 per month on your mortgage payment.
What This Means for Buyers
Lower rates mean more buying power. For many, that dream home just became affordable again.
Real estate analyst Patrick Veling puts it simply:
“As rates fall, more buyers will qualify to purchase or refinance, and much of the stale inventory of overpriced houses will be absorbed. It’s likely a very good time to buy before sellers figure all of this out and while many of them are motivated.”
I’m already seeing it on the ground here in Southern California. Buyers who waited out the higher rates are finally jumping in.
For example, my clients Ricardo and Michelle had been patiently waiting for prices to soften. With a price reduction, a generous family down payment, and today’s lower rates, they just closed on a beautiful Pasadena home under 6%!
What This Means for Homeowners
If you bought or refinanced when rates were higher, this could be a golden opportunity to refinance and lock in a lower payment.
Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist for the MBA, says refinance applications are now at their highest loan sizes in 35 years — a sign that homeowners with larger mortgages are taking advantage first.
The Seasonal Factor
Traditionally, fall and winter can be slower for home sales. But last year, when rates dipped below 6.5% for several weeks, we saw a surge in pending and closed sales that carried through the rest of the year.
Economist Steven Thomas suggests we could see history repeat itself — and with rates staying lower longer this time, buyers may have an extended window to act.
My Advice
✅ Buyers: Now is the time to get pre-approved and make a move while sellers are still motivated. Negotiate now before competition heats up.
✅ Homeowners: Explore refinancing. Consider a loan that includes a free future refinance — a “float-down” option — so you can take advantage if rates drop again.
✅ Everyone: Don’t wait for the headlines to convince you. By then, the market will already have shifted.
A Word of Caution
If your job is unstable or you plan to move in less than two years, it may not be the right time to buy. Transaction costs can outweigh short-term appreciation.
But if you’re planning to stay put and want to build equity instead of paying rent — this is your moment.
💡 Bottom line: Rates are down. Mortgage applications are way up. The market is waking up. Whether you’re buying your first home, upgrading, or refinancing, now is the time to talk strategy and position yourself for the best deal.
📲 Let’s talk. Send me a message today and I’ll help you figure out if this is your window to buy or refinance.
Lamont Hyde / Mortgage Broker
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